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A groundbreaking report by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University predicts a profound demographic shift in the United Kingdom, projecting that the White British population will become a minority by 2063. This extensive analysis, drawing on Office for National Statistics (ONS) and census data, forecasts significant increases in foreign-born and second-generation immigrant populations, alongside a substantial rise in the Muslim community, Daily Dazzling Dawn understands.
Currently, White British individuals constitute 73% of the UK population. However, Professor Goodwin's research suggests this proportion will decline to 57% by 2050 before dropping below 50% around 2063. By the end of the century, the White British share, defined as those without an immigrant parent, could fall to approximately 33.7%.
The report highlights a dramatic increase in the proportion of the UK population comprising foreign-born and second-generation immigrants. From below 20% currently, this group is projected to reach 33.5% within the next 25 years. By 2100, six in ten people in the UK are predicted to either not have been born in the UK or have at least one immigrant parent. This combined foreign-born and second-generation population is expected to become a majority in England by 2079, Wales by 2081, and Scotland by 2093.
Religious demographics are also set for a major transformation. The Muslim population, currently at 7% of the UK, is estimated to surge to over 11.2% within the next 25 years and account for nearly one in five (19.2%) of all people in the UK by 2100. Under a "high Muslim migration scenario," this figure could rise to one in four British people by 2100.
Birth Rates and Community Growth:
The report specifically notes higher fertility rates among foreign-born and Muslim populations compared to the UK-born and non-Muslim groups. While the overall UK-born fertility rate stands at 1.39, it is 1.97 for foreign-born individuals. For Muslims, the fertility rate is notably higher at 2.35, compared to 1.54 for non-Muslims.
While specific birth rates for "British Bangladeshi" and "British South Asian" communities are not individually detailed in the provided information, it can be inferred that these groups, falling under the broader "foreign-born" and "Muslim" categories (as many British Bangladeshis and South Asians are Muslim or have recent immigrant heritage), contribute to the higher fertility rates observed in those categories. The growth in the Muslim population, in particular, will significantly impact the overall demographic landscape.
Professor Goodwin emphasizes that these projections, based on consistent demographic trends, raise "profound questions about the capacity of the UK state to both absorb and manage this scale of demographic change." He acknowledges that these findings are likely to generate "considerable anxiety, concern and political opposition" among voters who favour lower immigration and slower pace of change to preserve traditional British culture.
The report also touches upon the unprecedented levels of legal and illegal migration witnessed recently, including a record high of 906,000 under the Conservative government in 2023. This has spurred policy responses, such as Labour's recent white paper proposing restrictions on migrant rights.
Professor Goodwin cautions that by the end of the century, a majority of people in the UK will not be able to trace their roots in the country back more than one or two generations. He suggests this could weaken national ties and risks the UK becoming "an island of strangers," as previously described by Sir Keir Starmer.
The analysis projects that among the under-40s, the demographic shifts will be even more pronounced. By 2100, for this younger age group, White individuals are projected to comprise only 28% of the population in England, while approximately 68% will be non-white, and roughly one in four will be Muslim. A large majority of young people will also have been born to at least one parent who was not born in the UK.
Professor Goodwin concludes that while population projections are complex, historical trends indicate that previous forecasts have often underestimated the pace of change. He stresses that the UK is on the cusp of a "dramatic population transformation" that will test the state and social contract like never before, urging political leaders to consider the long-term consequences of their policies.
