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Amid intense speculation over Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s longevity, a powerful consensus is emerging across the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is just a "button push" away from launching a highly credible challenge for the party’s leadership. Despite her September resignation following a breach of the ministerial code over her tax affairs, Ms Rayner’s allies and her own recent combative performance in the Commons have reinforced her position as a dominant force within the Labour movement.
The political mood suggests a challenge is increasingly inevitable, especially if the forthcoming May local elections deliver poor results. Senior figures on the left of the party have told that the MP for Ashton-under-Lyne has the bedrock of support necessary to take on her old boss, with one MP in the Socialist Campaign Group stating, "all Angela needs to do is push the button" to gain the backing of colleagues who are swayed by her enormous popularity with the Labour membership.
How Far is Angela Rayner Now?
Ms Rayner is currently positioned as the most formidable challenger from within the parliamentary ranks. Her path to victory is uniquely smoothed by strong member support. Exclusive polling conducted by Survation for LabourList in November 2025 indicated that Ms Rayner would defeat Sir Keir Starmer by a substantial 19-point margin in a head-to-head contest among Labour members, securing 52% to Starmer's 33%. This internal popularity is her greatest asset. To officially trigger a contest, she would require the public support of 81 Labour MPs (20% of the PLP), a threshold many colleagues believe she could meet given the growing unrest.
Who Will Be Main Competitors of Angela Rayner at the Moment?
The field of potential replacements for Starmer is competitive, though Ms Rayner holds a strong position. Her main competitor remains Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor. Mr Burnham is viewed by many MPs across the left and soft-left as a "no-brainer" candidate due to his distance from the current government and his popular, radical vision. The same Survation poll found Mr Burnham would beat Starmer by an even larger margin, attracting 58% to the Prime Minister’s 32%. However, Mr Burnham’s ability to run remains complicated by his non-MP status.
From within the current cabinet, Health Secretary Wes Streeting is also a key figure. Mr Streeting has been the bookmakers’ frontrunner and is seen as a charismatic communicator who could appeal to centrist voters. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former Labour leader Ed Miliband are also mentioned, with the latter securing a slight advantage over Starmer in member polling, though his previous electoral defeat in 2015 is a factor.
Why Personally is Angela Rayner Popular Inside the Party?
Ms Rayner’s popularity, particularly with the grassroots and trade unions, is legendary and stems directly from her personal trajectory. She is widely revered as the living embodiment of Labour’s founding mission. Elected Deputy Leader by the membership in 2020, her story of leaving school at 16 while pregnant, without qualifications, to become a care worker, trade union representative, and eventually Deputy Prime Minister, is often cited as “the best social mobility story this country has ever seen.”
This authentic working-class background grants her a relatability and trust that cuts through traditional political divides, making her a vital link to the party's traditional heartlands. While some colleagues on the far left have accused her of being "complicit" in the government's failures and not doing enough for their cause—saying she "could have done more"—others counter that her record in government, including introducing the Employment Rights Bill within 100 days, defending renters’ rights, and playing a crucial role in persuading Starmer to water down welfare cuts, shows a pragmatic, progressive influence.
Why Keir Starmer Always Supporting Angela Rayner as Previously Seen
Prime Minister Starmer’s support for Ms Rayner has been a constant throughout their leadership, a relationship rooted in political strategy and personal regard. Even after her resignation, he has been unwavering in his backing, offering his clearest indication yet that she will return to his cabinet.
When asked if he missed her, Sir Keir replied, "Yes, of course I do. I was really sad that we lost her," and definitively added that she is "hugely talented" and will return. This consistent support is crucial because Ms Rayner provides the vital connection to the working-class voters and the powerful trade union movement that Starmer, often perceived as a more cerebral figure, can struggle to reach. Her presence helps to unify the Labour coalition and provides the government with a necessary dose of authentic working-class grit and political defiance, which many MPs felt was on display during her recent powerful defence of workers’ rights legislation in the Commons.
Is the Keir Starmer Supporting Angela Rayner?
Unequivocally, yes, Sir Keir Starmer is publicly supporting Angela Rayner. He has gone further than ever before to champion her, recently describing her as “the best social mobility story this country has ever seen.” This continued support comes despite the fact that Ms Rayner’s resignation was prompted by an ethics investigation which found she broke the ministerial code by failing to get the correct tax advice on a property purchase. This clear public backing is seen by many as a protective measure to keep a powerful rival close and harness her popularity rather than risk her becoming a rallying point for dissent. A source close to Ms Rayner stated she is "not interested in pacts and plots" and "she’s no one’s pawn, she’s her own person," indicating she is moving on her own terms, whether or not a vacancy arises.
With the May local elections looming as a crunch date and the "visceral dislike of Starmer... baked in" for some voters, according to a Red Wall MP, Ms Rayner’s positive trajectory and strong internal mandate mean she stands ready to step up, placing the Labour leadership under her watchful eye.
