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Voters in Gorton and Denton, south-east Manchester, have begun casting their ballots in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and unpredictable by-elections in recent years.
The contest has evolved into a three-way battle between the Labour Party, the Green Party, and Reform UK. Green Party co-leader Zack Polanski claimed his party is running “neck and neck” with Reform UK and could overturn Labour’s substantial 13,000-vote majority in the constituency.
Polanski warned that if Reform UK secures victory, Labour would need to “search their conscience,” accusing Keir Starmer’s party of deliberately splitting the progressive vote. He argued that Labour fears a Green win would pose an “existential” threat to Starmer’s leadership.
Labour Targets Left-Leaning Voters
Labour has focused its campaign on persuading left-leaning voters that only it can prevent a Reform UK breakthrough, cautioning that backing the Greens would effectively aid Nigel Farage’s party. The strategy mirrors messaging used in previous contests, including the Caerphilly by-election, where Labour was defeated despite presenting itself as the sole viable challenger to Reform.
Polanski insisted Labour is “not in this race at all,” claiming internal Green Party data shows Reform slightly ahead, with Labour trailing behind both parties. He expressed concern that Reform could win narrowly if Labour attracts just enough votes to deny the Greens victory.
A similar split on the left previously enabled Reform UK to claim the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by a margin of just six votes.
High Stakes for Starmer
Labour is defending a majority of 13,413 votes in a seat where nearly 80% of voters backed left-leaning parties in the 2024 general election. The result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning.
Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, was selected after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was prevented from standing. Reform UK has fielded academic and broadcaster Matt Goodwin, while the Greens are represented by Trafford councillor Hannah Spencer.
Political analyst Prof Will Jennings of the University of Southampton described the race as “too close to call,” reflecting Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape. He warned that a Labour defeat — particularly a third-place finish behind Reform and the Greens — would deal a serious blow to Downing Street’s strategy of appealing to right-leaning voters while retaining progressive support.
“It would symbolise the failure of that approach,” Jennings suggested, adding that blocking Burnham’s candidacy could heighten scrutiny if Labour performs poorly.
Conversely, a Labour victory could ease pressure on Starmer, whose party currently trails Reform in national polling. However, any reprieve may be temporary, with local and devolved elections scheduled in 10 weeks and expectations of significant Labour losses.
Campaign Tensions Escalate
During a campaign visit earlier this week, Starmer criticised the Green Party’s proposal to legalise certain drugs, calling it “disgusting” and claiming it would transform parks and playgrounds into “crack dens.”
Polanski dismissed the remarks as “spoiler behaviour” and condemned a Labour social media advert that featured a green syringe alongside text suggesting the Greens support drugs such as heroin and crack cocaine. He described it as a “desperate” tactic.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne in January due to health reasons. Gwynne had been under parliamentary investigation concerning offensive messages shared in a private WhatsApp group involving local Labour figures.
With polls open and the race finely balanced, the outcome in Gorton and Denton could have significant implications not only for Manchester politics but also for the broader national landscape.
