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A new poll by Find Out Now has revealed a dramatic shift in London’s political landscape, with Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives in the capital as Labour support sharply declines.
The poll shows Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, climbing to 19% support in London—two points ahead of the Conservatives, who have dropped to 17%, marking a three-point fall since the General Election. Labour remains in the lead with 30%, but this represents a steep 13-point decline since July last year.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens have gained ground amid growing discontent with the government, each increasing their share by five points to reach 16% and 15% respectively, according to the survey commissioned by Reform.
Farage hailed the results as a sign of growing strength for his party, saying: “This is encouraging for Reform, especially as London has been our weakest region. Even here, we’re ahead of a fading Conservative Party.”
The poll suggests that 25% of Reform supporters in London previously voted Conservative, while only 5% came from Labour. Among Green supporters, 12% previously backed Labour, as did 9% of current Lib Dem voters.
Despite the next General Election likely being four years away, 32% of Londoners still say they are undecided, although the poll tried to “squeeze” undecided voters for more concrete responses. The margin of error is around 3%.
This poll adds further pressure on the Conservatives and their leader Kemi Badenoch as they struggle to retain major party status in an increasingly fragmented political scene.
In terms of the 2028 London mayoral race, Labour still leads with 33%, while Reform and the Conservatives are tied at 20%. The Greens are on 13% and the Lib Dems on 10%. Reform could also expand their presence in the London Assembly, potentially increasing their seats from one to five.
Alex Wilson, Reform’s current Assembly Member, said the poll reflects continued momentum following the party’s strong performance on May 1st.
Reform’s surge is particularly notable among older Londoners, with 35% of those aged 65–74 and 33% of those over 75 expressing support for the party. In contrast, only 6% of 18–29-year-olds back Reform. The party also has stronger support among men (21%) than women (16%).
The Conservatives now hold just nine seats in London and none in the central part of the city. The poll suggests MP Julia Lopez in Hornchurch and Upminster could be most at risk from a Reform challenge, with just under 2,000 votes separating her from Reform candidate Nick Palmer in July. Andrew Rosindell in Romford may also be vulnerable, while Chris Philp (Croydon South) and Peter Fortune (Bromley and Biggin Hill) could see Labour victories if Reform further splits the Conservative vote.
Some separate polling indicates Boris Johnson may be the only Conservative capable of outperforming Farage in a head-to-head scenario.
The survey was conducted between May 4 and 8 among 1,102 London adults and weighted to reflect the capital’s population by age, gender, region, ethnicity, and 2024 voting behaviour.
