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Britain faces a growing risk of food price shocks because it depends heavily on imports of fruit and vegetables from countries increasingly exposed to climate change, the Food Foundation has warned in a report published on Wednesday, 19 August 2026. Around 40% of the UK’s food is imported, including about 80% of its fruit and 47% of its vegetables, leaving household food costs vulnerable when extreme heat, drought and water shortages disrupt production overseas.
The warning comes after a summer of severe weather across the UK, where repeated heatwaves, prolonged dry conditions and wildfires have already placed pressure on domestic agriculture. At the same time, farmers and growers are dealing with high energy costs, labour shortages and uncertainty over agricultural policy.
The Food Foundation argues that the problem is not simply the amount of food Britain imports, but where those supplies come from. Its analysis found that 18 of the 20 leading countries supplying the UK with healthy staple foods are moderately to severely vulnerable to climate breakdown.
The UK remains considerably more dependent on imported fresh produce than several other major western European economies, including France, Germany and Spain. While Britain generally produces sufficient grains, meat, milk and eggs to meet domestic requirements, fruit and vegetables remain a major weakness in the national food supply.
Several foods commonly found in British shopping baskets could be produced domestically on a much larger scale. Apples, strawberries, blueberries, raspberries and pears can all be grown in the UK, yet domestic production covers less than 40% of consumption for four of those five fruits.
The picture is similar for vegetables. Carrots are the notable exception, with domestic production covering about 94% of consumption. For tomatoes, mushrooms, peppers, cucumbers, onions, broccoli and green beans, however, only around half of domestic demand is met by British growers.
Government figures underline the challenge. The latest horticulture statistics show domestic production accounted for 56% of the UK’s fresh vegetable supply in 2025, while growers reported prolonged dry weather and water availability as major constraints.
The climate risk extends beyond Britain’s borders. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that rising temperatures can reduce crop yields, increase heat stress and damage the quality of fruit and vegetables, particularly in regions including the Mediterranean, North Africa and parts of South and Central America.
That creates a vulnerability for British consumers. If harvests fail simultaneously in several major supplier countries, importers may have fewer alternatives and retailers could face higher procurement costs. Those costs can eventually feed through to supermarket prices.
The Food Foundation has previously highlighted the concentration of British fruit and vegetable imports in countries facing water scarcity. Its research has identified countries including Spain, South Africa, Chile, Morocco and Israel among important sources where water stress poses a growing long-term concern.
The issue is particularly important because fruit and vegetables are central to a healthy diet. A 2025 study published in Public Health Nutrition found that the UK food supply contains a smaller proportion of fruit and vegetables than recommended by the Eatwell Guide, while imported fruit and vegetable volumes have increased over the longer term.
Increasing domestic production could reduce some of the UK’s exposure to international supply shocks, but growers say expansion is becoming harder.
Energy prices are a particular concern for businesses operating glasshouses, where heating and lighting can be essential for year-round production. Labour availability, access to water, planning restrictions and the cost of investment are also significant obstacles.
Ali Capper, who runs an apple and hops farm in Worcestershire and chairs the British Apples and Pears trade body, has called for greater certainty over seasonal labour, water supplies, planning rules, energy costs and long-term agreements with buyers.
Food Foundation executive director Anna Taylor warned that climate disruption could eventually make nutritious food more expensive and less accessible to households already under financial pressure.
“Daily Dazzling Dawn understands” that the warning comes as the Government prepares a horticulture sector growth plan intended to address some of the structural challenges facing British growers.
The Government has already identified horticulture as a priority for improving food security. In 2024, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs published a blueprint aimed at increasing domestic fruit and vegetable production, improving access to affordable energy and water, reducing planning barriers and encouraging investment in modern glasshouses and controlled-environment agriculture.
More recently, the Government’s Farming Roadmap 2050, published in June 2026, placed greater emphasis on making English agriculture more resilient to extreme weather and climate change. It also confirmed that horticulture would be among the first sectors to receive a dedicated growth plan.
For consumers, the stakes extend beyond farming policy. A disruption to a major overseas harvest can quickly become a supermarket pricing issue, particularly when Britain has limited domestic alternatives.
The Food Foundation is therefore calling for greater investment in climate-resilient British horticulture, arguing that strengthening domestic production now could help protect both food availability and household budgets in the years ahead.
The central challenge for policymakers is increasingly clear: Britain cannot eliminate food imports, but it can reduce its vulnerability by producing more of the fresh food its population depends upon while making domestic farming better equipped to withstand a changing climate.
