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Daily Dazzling Dawn — In a move that Westminster insiders have dismissed as too little, too late, Sir Keir Starmer has signalled he would offer Andy Burnham a senior Cabinet position if the Greater Manchester Mayor wins Thursday's Makerfield by-election.
The Prime Minister, currently attending the G7 summit in France, made the remarks as polls suggest Burnham holds a narrow but significant lead over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. Yet the offer has done little to quell the growing insurgency, with former Health Secretary Wes Streeting confirming he would trigger a leadership contest as early as next week if Starmer refuses to stand aside.
A Divided Party
The depth of Labour's internal fracturing has become increasingly apparent as multiple figures position themselves for a post-Starmer era. Allies of Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, are reportedly prepared to resign next week to force the Prime Minister out if he does not go quietly.
Cabinet ministers have already made private soundings to Burnham's camp about retaining their positions in a future administration, according to sources close to the Manchester Mayor.
"The Prime Minister has lost the confidence of significant sections of his own party," one senior Labour source told journalists, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The question is no longer whether change will come, but when and how."
The Parallel Power Structure
What has emerged in recent weeks is the development of two parallel lines of leadership within the Labour Party. While Starmer continues to occupy Downing Street, Burnham has effectively established an alternative centre of authority, attracting support from MPs who view him as the party's best hope against Nigel Farage's surging Reform UK.
This dual power structure has created unprecedented tensions, with some ministers accused of effectively serving two masters. The situation has been exacerbated by the resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns over defence spending disagreements—departures that have further destabilised Starmer's position.
The Makerfield Factor
The Makerfield by-election has become the focal point of this leadership drama. The constituency, which has returned Labour MPs for over a century, is now seen as the vehicle through which Burnham could return to Parliament and launch a formal challenge.
If elected, Burnham would have to resign as Greater Manchester Mayor, triggering another by-election expected by 6 August. Starmer has sought to use this as leverage, suggesting the party must focus on retaining the mayoralty rather than engaging in internal battles.
"There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections," Starmer told reporters. "We then tip straight into the Manchester mayoralty by-election… so we're all going to have to focus on that".
However, Burnham's supporters argue that the importance of the mayoralty only strengthens the case for him to become Prime Minister sooner rather than later.
Should Burnham win as expected, the coming days will prove decisive. Streeting has indicated he would prefer Starmer to "take a decision on his own terms rather than leave it for me or Andy or anyone else to trigger a contest". However, if the Prime Minister refuses to resign, Streeting has confirmed he is "prepared" to trigger a formal challenge.
Sources close to Burnham suggest he will stop short of publicly calling for Starmer's resignation immediately after the result. Instead, his supporters are expected to dominate the broadcast media, creating an atmosphere of irresistible pressure. The real confrontation is likely to come at next Tuesday's Cabinet meeting, where Starmer could face a direct revolt from his own ministers.
The Prime Minister has insisted he will fight any challenge, telling reporters: "If there is a challenge, then I intend to fight. I'm not going to walk away from that".
Polls and Prospects
The Opinium poll conducted for Forward Democracy gives Burnham a five-point lead among likely voters, with Labour on 46 per cent against Reform UK's 41 per cent. The entry of Restore Britain, a breakaway far-right party, could split the anti-Labour vote further, benefiting Burnham.
Yet the underlying trends remain troubling for Labour. In last month's local elections, Reform UK swept all eight council seats in Makerfield, and polling suggests the constituency's long-term trajectory favours Farage's party. When respondents were asked how they would vote in a future general election, Reform UK led Labour by 42 per cent to 34 per cent, suggesting Burnham's personal appeal may be masking deeper problems.
As Daily Dazzling Dawn has consistently reported, the stakes could not be higher. One political commentator told journalists: "I'd be surprised if Burnham didn't win. But if Reform were running a stronger candidate, this could look very different".
