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Home Secretary outpaces Reform UK with high-stakes visa sanctions on non-cooperative nations.
The British government is preparing to leverage a "transactional" visa regime against major nations like Pakistan and Afghanistan as Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood accelerates a massive deportation drive ahead of the 2026 local elections. While Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf is grabbing headlines by pledging a "Donald Trump-style" exit for 600,000 migrants, Westminster insiders reveal that the Labour government has already built the legal machinery to execute these bans, effectively turning the Reform manifesto into a "copy-paste" of existing Home Office strategy.
The Visa Leverage Strategy
The Home Office has shifted to a "consequences-based" diplomatic model where normal visa relations are now a reward for cooperation on returns. Earlier this month, Shabana Mahmood successfully forced the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Angola, and Namibia to accept deportees after stripping their officials of VIP visa perks and suspending fast-track services. Sources suggest Pakistan and Afghanistan are next on the high-priority list for similar sanctions if they continue to stall on the return of their nationals. With Pakistani citizens cited as some of the most likely to overstay their visas, the government is ready to pull the trigger on full visa freezes to meet aggressive removal targets.
Labour’s Pre-Election Blitz
Facing a critical test in the upcoming May 7 local elections, Sir Keir Starmer is pushing for a "visible restoration of order" to protect the party’s flank from Reform UK's surging popularity. The government’s "Restoring Order and Control" white paper has already set the stage for an April 2026 overhaul of immigration rules. This includes moving the settlement period from five to ten years and introducing a "core protection" system that makes refugee status temporary. By delivering record removal numbers—already hitting 58,500 since taking office—Labour aims to neutralize the opposition's migration narrative before voters head to the polls.
Operation Restoring Justice vs Government Act
Reform UK’s "Operation Restoring Justice" mirrors the legal powers granted to the Home Secretary under the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act 2025. While Yusuf proposes a dedicated "Deportation Command," the government has already established its own Border Security Command and is currently transitioning migrants from hotels to repurposed military sites. The primary difference remains the scale of rhetoric; while Reform promises a £2,500 "voluntary departure" incentive, the Labour frontbench is focusing on the legislative "hammer" of visa sanctions to force international compliance.
What Happens Next
The next few weeks are expected to see a flurry of bilateral agreements as the Home Office targets "safe third country" hubs to process removals. As the government successfully defended its right to hold local elections on schedule against legal challenges, the focus now turns to clearing the asylum backlog entirely. Expect an announcement regarding expanded visa restrictions on South Asian and Middle Eastern nations within the month, as the Home Secretary moves to "slam the door" on those who refuse to take back their citizens, leaving Reform UK scrambling to find clear blue water between their manifesto and the government’s reality.
