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We are witnessing the plight of Imran Khan in Pakistan. In Bangladesh, nearly a year and a half has passed since an unelected regime, which clung to power for a decade and a half, fled in the face of a mass uprising.I truly wonder if there is any other nation where the Acting Chairman of the largest opposition party—a major force for two decades—is made to wait for a 'green signal' like this just to return to his own homeland.
The political landscape in Bangladesh has escalated to a fever pitch regarding the potential repatriation of BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman—a prospect currently stifled by a labyrinth of geopolitical complexities and internal machinations. The narrative has transcended mere political maneuvering, evolving into a profound humanitarian and existential quandary for the opposition. Even as his mother, former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, wages a critical battle for her life, entrenched adversaries appear to have successfully interdicted Rahman’s return.
Political observers are posing a sharp strategic inquiry regarding the timing of these impediments. The prevailing logic posits that if incumbent powers can prohibit a son from visiting his dying mother on humanitarian grounds, the statistical probability of them facilitating his return for the express purpose of electoral contestation is negligible. This blockade establishes a grim precedent; actors denying entry during a family emergency are unlikely to extend a red carpet for a campaign that could lead to a transfer of power. Consequently, the risk assessment for Rahman is severe, compelling the question: can he risk a return without an ironclad security guarantee? Risk-taking is a critical element of politics. It was unwavering courage that turned Begum Khaleda Zia into a political institution, and her son, Tarique Rahman, must not forget this. Of course, his safety is crucial. But one cannot ignore that he has millions of self-dedicated supporters standing behind him. The party has its own security detail and advisors—teams that have been working on the safety protocols for his homecoming for more than a year now. It is already old news that a bulletproof motorcade is being brought in from Japan for his safety.
Now the situation points toward a deep fissure, rooted in ongoing discourse and widespread speculation—both domestic and international—regarding the absence of a "green signal" from key power centers, particularly the United States and the Bangladesh Army. Many are also discussing the role of India. Tarique Rahman’s own Facebook status has brought these rumors to the forefront.
The apparent reality suggests that without the overt or tacit consent of international stakeholders and the military establishment, Tarique Rahman’s return remains barred for the time being. This geopolitical hesitation indicates that influential circles prefer to maintain the status quo, inevitably drifting the nation toward an uncertain political vacuum. In the current government of Bangladesh, those influenced by the US and those enjoying its blessing have become indistinguishable from the administration itself.
Read more: Khaleda Fights for Life: Mystery Shrouds Tarique Rahman’s Urgent Return
To contextualize this prolonged expatriation, one must examine the timeline of the schism. Tarique Rahman departed Bangladesh on September 11, 2008, for medical treatment in London following his release on parole, and has not set foot on Bangladeshi soil since. The physical estrangement between the BNP high command and its grassroots base has exacerbated over the years.
Sources indicate that, absent a positive signal from US and military quarters, there is no immediate prospect of Tarique Rahman returning to Dhaka. This reality suggests that the formidable challenge facing the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ahead of the next national election lies in the covert maneuvering taking place behind the diplomatic curtain.This debate could potentially extend the current government's tenure for a while longer, rather than an election taking place in February.It is premature to comment on whether the target of this ongoing game is Tarique the individual, or the BNP as a party. The vulnerability revealed in Tarique Rahman’s Facebook post serves as a glaring reminder of the pitiable state of both his standing and the broader political reality of Bangladesh.
It is my assessment that he will confront and overcome all misgivings, making his return to the nation within the month of December.
