EV Target Rollback Could Increase UK Emissions by 13%, New Analysis Warns

Plans to weaken the UK's electric vehicle (EV) sales targets could significantly undermine the country's climate ambitions, according to new research released ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on emissions goals.

Environmental experts have warned that reducing EV sales requirements could lead to a substantial increase in carbon emissions, threatening the government's ability to meet its long-term climate commitments.

The warning comes as more than 20 environmental and transport organisations, including Greenpeace, WWF, and Mums For Lungs, have urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to maintain the current transition plan toward electric vehicles.

Reports suggest ministers are considering lowering the UK's EV sales target for 2030 from 80% of new vehicle sales to potentially 50%, following concerns raised by some car manufacturers and industry groups about the economic impact of stricter regulations.

However, analysis by the Green Alliance think tank estimates that a significant reduction in EV adoption would leave millions of additional petrol and diesel vehicles on UK roads for longer. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions could increase by as much as 70 million tonnes between 2038 and 2042.

According to the research, this would add roughly 13% to the emissions budget the government hopes to achieve during that period, placing a key climate target at risk.

Climate campaigners argue that electric vehicles play a crucial role in reducing the UK's dependence on imported fossil fuels while helping to improve energy security. They also point to financial benefits for motorists, with government figures suggesting EV owners can save up to £1,400 annually on running costs when charging at home.

Holly Brazier Tope of Green Alliance said maintaining policy certainty is essential for attracting investment, supporting the automotive sector, and ensuring continued progress toward cleaner transportation.

The debate highlights growing tensions between environmental goals and concerns from parts of the automotive industry. Some manufacturers argue they are being forced to heavily discount electric vehicles to meet government quotas, creating financial pressures that could threaten jobs and production facilities.

Industry leaders have warned that compliance costs are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, particularly for companies struggling to compete in a rapidly evolving market that includes growing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers.

While several major brands, including Volkswagen, Hyundai, BMW, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, BYD, and Tesla, are expected to meet current targets, others continue to face challenges adapting to the transition.

Supporters of the existing EV mandate argue that weakening the targets could also discourage investment in the UK's charging infrastructure. Financial and green investment groups warn that policy uncertainty may slow the expansion of charging networks at a time when demand for electric vehicles continues to grow.

Recent market figures indicate strong momentum for EV adoption, with registrations rising by more than 30% year-on-year in May, making electric cars the fastest-growing segment of the UK automotive market.

A spokesperson for the Department for Transport said the government remains committed to supporting the EV transition through billions of pounds of investment in vehicle manufacturing, charging infrastructure, and consumer incentives. Officials added that the mandate is under review to ensure it continues to support both environmental objectives and the long-term competitiveness of British industry.

The findings are likely to intensify political debate ahead of Parliament's upcoming vote on the UK's latest climate commitments, with campaigners warning that any retreat from existing EV targets could have long-lasting consequences for emissions reduction efforts.